Round to the production cycle has come to an end shdoclc.dll

The production cycle has come to an end of the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Liang Hong in addition to some through administrative means "inhibit" capacity of the industry, the recent overall PPI rise may indicate that many state-owned enterprises accounted for relatively low "in the industry has experienced 4~5 years of deflation Cuilian, go round the production cycle and the integration of the industry come to an end. The current round of production cycle has come to an end from 2010 to 2016, the total annual growth rate of industrial enterprises debt has slowed from 20% to low single digit level. Moreover, the total growth rate of industrial enterprises during the period was significantly slower than the growth of the total amount of loans and social financing. As shown in Figures 1 and 2, the expansion rate of total liabilities of industrial enterprises has slowed to the lowest level since 1998, the last round of large-scale production capacity and industry adjustment period. In addition, although the credit expansion period of 2012~2013 and 2015~2016 may buffer the growth of industrial enterprises debt growth, but did not reverse its trend. From a structural point of view, 2012~2013 local government financing platform and the real estate industry, the fastest growth in debt, and the recent round of credit expansion cycle, the broad sense of government departments and residents of the most obvious leverage. Figure 1 Figure 2 except by administrative means "inhibit" capacity of the industry, the recent overall PPI rise may indicate that many state-owned enterprises accounted for relatively low "in the industry has experienced 4~5 years of deflation after quenching, the production cycle and the integration of the industry to come to an end. Indeed, some important industrial raw materials, such as coal, steel and oil recovery in some price is subject to administrative or limited production and international commodity prices push. However, the major categories of industrial prices generally rebounded trend shows that the supply and demand of other industries have also improved. Figure 2 shows that PPI after a long period of deflation after the rise, may be a long time to come to the end of the production cycle signal (similar to 1994~1998). Intuitively, the price rise is the first signal of the past experience of tightening of supply and demand, price signals often lead the production cycle (about half the time delay of all kinds of products and prices bottomed out capacity is slightly different, see chart 3~4). In industries with less government intervention and a lower proportion of state-owned enterprises, the supply response to price declines seems to be more rapid and firm than those of state-owned enterprises such as coal, steel, nonferrous metals and oil. Figure 3 Figure 4-1 Figure 4-2 in light industry raw materials, textiles, paper, chemical products, food manufacturing, steel, specialty metals and equipment industries, industry supply and demand and the improvement of the competitive landscape is more obvious. To some extent, we can use the total assets of the industry’s total debt growth, as well as changes in the number of enterprises to quantify the progress of the industry level integration. Overall, since 2015, the growth rate of industrial enterprises debt has slowed significantly compared with the average speed of the previous 3 years. At the same time, the annual revenue of more than 20 million yuan of industrial enterprises also declined. In addition, our analysis of the progress of the production capacity of various industries, one of the main drivers of the recent rise in prices of many industrial products相关的主题文章: