Hong industry Futures iron ore accumulation risks facing downside risks-truffe

Hong Futures: the downside risks to the client to view the latest quotes, fundamental analysis, 1 iron ore supply side: contradictions accumulated four mines to maintain high yield from the historical data, four foreign mining production showed obvious seasonal factors, the first half was lower than that of the second half of the year, so the first half of the iron ore production the stone will increase obviously. From the current data show that the four major mines, Australia’s top three mines this year, there is no new project put into operation, mainly in the vale of S11D in Brazil. In the second quarter conference call, Vale announced its latest progress, the current project mining and processing plant to complete 90% degree of logistics 70% degree of completion, the railway line completed 92% projects, in December this year will be officially put into operation of a production line, January 2017 officially started selling. In addition, although the capacity replacement plan vale last year the total output has declined, but the gradual improvement of the maderia port transportation line makes the shipment is not affected, the plan to the inventory target is carried out according to plan, so although it may in the lower edge of the target range of 3.4-3.5 million tons of production this year, but sales are expected to breakthrough 3.4 tons, a record high. From the point of view of shipments, Brazil and Australia sent to China’s iron ore also showed a significant cyclical. From the current data shows that August shipments of iron ore at a relatively low level, so the second half of the foreign mining in order to increase profits will increase shipments of iron ore shipments in September, is expected to be at the level of around 93 million tons. 2, port stocks fell, but still in the high level of imported ore port stocks, as of September 23rd, the port iron ore inventory of 102 million 720 thousand tons, a decline of about 1.24%, port stocks remain high. The amount of hair, because of the introduction of the new transport policy, the amount of the latest data for the 2 million 520 thousand tons, down 178 thousand tons more than last week, a decline of 6.6%. 3, the demand side: mills began shortly after the loss, the downward pressure on the       due to the recent price of coking plant, the coking coal spot prices rise, resulting in iron and steel enterprises profit gradually upstream coking plant transfer. From the results of the NDRC stable coal supply can also be seen, the current coal industry, 276 policy will not change, but there will be fine-tuning. The upstream costs will be forced to increase the profits of downstream steel companies. As of September 23rd, the national profit of 68.1% steel mills, compared with last week, a decrease of 12.27%, the magnitude of the Hebei steel company was $64.38%, compared with last week, a decrease of 17.81%, the rate of $21.7%. With the gradual decline in the demand for iron ore mills, iron ore prices will be downside risks. Two, the proposed iron ore market outlook in the supply and demand side of the gradual decline in the contradictory pattern, the downward trend or will continue. From a technical point of view, the 30 day moving average and the pressure on the top of the 60 day moving average, it is recommended to maintain short below the strategy of 420. Hong ye.相关的主题文章: